The bet favorability is calculated using the concept of Expected Value (EV). Here's how we do it:
- Calculate the Loss Rate:
Loss Rate = 1 - Win Rate
- Calculate the Expected Value from Winning:
EV(Win) = Win Rate × Winning Amount
- Calculate the Expected Value from Losing:
EV(Loss) = Loss Rate × (-Losing Amount)
- Calculate the Total Expected Value:
Total EV = EV(Win) + EV(Loss)
The bet is considered:
- Favorable if Total EV > 0
- Unfavorable if Total EV < 0
- Break-even if Total EV = 0
This calculation gives you the average amount you can expect to win (or lose) per bet if you were to make this bet many times under the same conditions.